Комета Еленина возможно будет ярче чем ожидалось

02.05.2011 |

A. Novichonok

Комета C/2010 X1 (Elenin) становится одной из самых наблюдаемых долгопериодических комет. На настоящий момент общее количество наблюдений с помощью ПЗС-камер приблизилось к 1300, в то время как количество ПЗС-измерений кометы C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake) не превышает 1000. Конечно, во многом это объясняется развитием и доступностью современных ПЗС-камер, но все же я подчеркнул этот факт для сторонников различных теорий заговоров, рассказывающих о том, что комету Еленина невозможно увидеть на небе или все ее наблюдения строго засекречены. Конечно это не так, но вернемся к новостям о самой комете.

На основании отобранных, качественных оценок блеска кометы, Артемом Новичонком была обновлена фотометрическая модель кометы C/2010 X1 (Elenin). По новому прогнозу комета может достичь блеска 4m вблизи перигелия и это без учета эффекта переднего рассеивания (forward scattering), когда комета окажется точно между Землей и Солнцем. Мельчайшие ледяные пылинки будут рассеивать свет проходящий через них и яркость кометы, которую мы сможем наблюдать на снимках с космического коронографа SOHO, будет расти. Комета может достичь нулевой звездной величины и даже стать еще ярче! Правда такой резкий рост блеска будет скоротечным и когда комета выйдет из соединения с Солнцем и мы сможем увидеть ее на утреннем небе, блеск кометы уже вернется к 4-4.5m. Доступной для наблюдений невооруженным взглядом комета будет до начала ноября.

Рубрика: Новости |

Метки: C/2010 X1 (Elenin), Comet, Comet Elenin, Комета, Комета Еленина

Gabriel

Leonid

We will see just the coma or the tail too?
It will be seen during the day light and and how long time?
And what will be the max. magnitud do you expect?

Thanks for you time

Leonid Elenin

Hi Gabriel,

We will see just the coma or the tail too?
It will be seen during the day light and and how long time?
And what will be the max. magnitud do you expect?

Now we can see coma and short but broad tail.
Unfortunatly, I think what my comet will not visible on daylight.

kentoni1

This is great news. You must be very happy, Leonid, to see your comet becoming more visible and very popular. Time for me to buy a new telescope!

Leonid Elenin

This is great news. You must be very happy, Leonid, to see your comet becoming more visible and very popular. Time for me to buy a new telescope!

Yes, I’m happy, it’s my dream

Clear Skies!

Ems D

Very good news on magnitude Leonid

congratulations!!!!!

Ems

Leonid Elenin

Very good news on magnitude Leonid

congratulations!!!!!

Thanks Ems!

Gabriel

Thanks for you answer Leonid, this will be a beautiful experience
Kenneth

Could it also be more destructive than expected?

Leonid Elenin

Could it also be more destructive than expected?

No, comet is not dangerous and it orbit is well known.

Spaceman

Is there a possibility that we will see a great meteor swarm when earth passes through the tail?

Leonid Elenin

Is there a possibility that we will see a great meteor swarm when earth passes through the tail?

The main question — length and width of comet tail after perihelion…

http://twitter.com/Edgar_astronomy Edgar Luis Gomez

Leonid Congratulations! Your comet will be historic and one of the most extraordinary.

A greeting and continue to report
kingkevin

Hello Mr. Elenin. Wondering if the size of the tail has increased since last at 80,000km. Just trying to keep updated on the situation! Thanks
Nick

let’s talk about coincidences

11/9 twin tower attack
11/9 comet elenin reach perihelion

ELEven NINe is the comet

i don’t want to say anything… just… funny coincidence of famous dates and names! ;D

good work mr.elenin

Leonid Elenin

Hi Nick,

11/9 twin tower attack
11/9 comet elenin reach perihelion

Sorry, but my comet will pass perihelion on 10/9…

ELEven NINe is the comet

You can find many interpretation of my name You can choose any of them.

Joao Poco

«The main question — length and width of comet tail after perihelion …»

C/2010 X1 (Elenim) is a common comet or it is very different. What is the main differences between your comet (your dream) and the other observable comets in these period. What was the magnitude of Haley Comet in 1910 ?

Thank you for your precious attention

Joao
Kenneth

@Nick: Re: let’s talk about coincidences
————————

Plus it reaches perihelion at constellation LEO (for Leonid)?

C’mon!!!

Leonid Elenin

Plus it reaches perihelion at constellation LEO (for Leonid)?

Nope Comet will be in Virgo.

Nick

hi mr elenin

im afraid but what i find in internet is different..

in the finding chart of this site the comet will appear in the costellation of Leo http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2010X1/2010X1.html

while in this site perihelion is exactly at 11/9: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20X1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb (0.482 AU)

while at 10/9 is 0,483…

goodbye

Leonid Elenin

while in this site perihelion is exactly at 11/9: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C%2F2010%20X1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb (0.482 AU)

while at 10/9 is 0,483…

Tp = 2011-Sep-10.71964605 (from JPL)

Ephemeris from JPL

2011-Sep-10 17:00 12 49 25.65 -05 40 49.3 0.482469484428 AU

But

2011-Sep-11 00:00 12 49 33.91 -05 40 22.3 0.482515874731 AU

Sorry, I destruct another myth

in the finding chart of this site the comet will appear in the costellation of Leo http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2010X1/2010X1.html

Do you see constellation borders and precise position of my comet on 9/10? No? Comet will be in Virgo constellation. Sorry for another debunk

kingkevin

Mr. Elenin, repeatedly scientists say they know it will not cause ANY problems, my dad being a physicist I know that science is basically done in variable. Now projecting a comets EXACT path, one that has never passed earth, is nearly impossible to get 100% accurate. I’m as tired of the people saying NOTHING will happen, as I am as the ones who guarantee something will happen.Both are in the same boat. Logic is, nobody knows FOR SURE that much about elenin, including you. Any scientists who sits there and says NOTHING could happen, is as big of a liar as the fear mongers who say they know something will happen. A 100% outcome on either side in science is not even logical. Maybe 99.9% but it’s science, and as we see in the last four months, scientists have NO idea about space. THey may as well take their findings and scrap them, they’re not even close. Basically I feel its unprofessional to state NO WAY IT COULD CAUSE ANYTHING, for all you know a weird occurance could happen,like has been the last year or so in space, and change that outcome. Only shooting down ONE side of the argument strikes suspicion, especially when it’s based through theory!

DirtyD420

Thank you Kingkevin, my question is why are they asking an amateur astronomer these questions WHAT A JOKE. Why dont they ask some one with some credibility on the matter say someone with some REAL credentials. When Leonid can disprove Dr. Mensur Omerbashrich, Prof. James Mccanney, and Piers Corbyn’s theories, a combined total of 8 Phd’s, then i’ll listen to an ASTRONOMER, on questions we should be asking an ASTROPHYSICIST. LOL
HERE LEONID TRY BEBUNKING OVER 45 PAGES OF PHSICAL INTRUMENTAL-DATA PROOF!!!
link: http://sites.google.com/site/omerbashich/
A man with 4 patents on his theories
How many do you have Leonid?

Knowledge is power

Money is powerful

Would you turn down free money?

Nick

Thanks kingkevin, that’s exactly my thought!

The graph isn’t saying so… why at 11 september they rounded at 0.482 while it’s 0.482515874731 AU?… (or maybe the graph isn’t update! And if it isn’t update so the course of the comet isn’t sure at 100%!..So if it isn’t sure at 100% you can’t debunk or destroy anything… no?)

as for the costellation i was referring at when the comet will be visible at first, i didn’t understand what the other guy wanted to say…

now i understand that a scientist as to say that everything is fine for not to cause panic in people.. but in your site, where only interested people and amateur astronomers are present, i think you could declare some doubts (if you have )…
that’s my thought
good day

Leonid Elenin

The graph isn’t saying so… why at 11 september they rounded at 0.482 while it’s 0.482515874731 AU?… or maybe the graph isn’t update!

I give you accurate results of perturbed numerical integration.

http://facebook.com/spike8888 spike brown

you need to see this its a fire ball the size of earth http://spaceweather.com/

elenin is a earth size fire ball maybe bigger
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=elenin;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

Leonid Elenin

elenin is a earth size fire ball maybe bigger

Comet nucleus of my comet in thousands times smaller than Earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Kheider Kevin Heider

Halley’s comet was magnitude 0-1 in 1910.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?great_comets
susan read

Hi leonid,

We are in the EasternCape, South Africa Port Alfred what are the chances of us seeing the comet here and what time would the best visibility be?

Leonid Elenin

Hi Susan!

We are in the EasternCape, South Africa Port Alfred what are the chances of us seeing the comet here and what time would the best visibility be?

You will see my comet from early September in the evening sky, after this comet will enter in conjunction with the Sun, on mid-October you can see comet just before sunrise and very low above horizon.

Jason

Looks like southern hemisphere folk are going to be better placed for observing your comet when its at its brightest, hurry up and find a «hale bopp style» comet that’s going to be best seen from the Northern hemisphere!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Kheider Kevin Heider

JPL’s Orbit Diagram specifically says:
The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances. For accurate long-term ephemerides, please instead use our Horizons system.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2010X1;orb=1;cad=1

Tp (time of perihelion passage)=2011-Sep-10

Mhayes8655

Curious Kevin, you use the term «our» Horizons system. Does this mean you work for NASA?

http://www.world-pyramids.com Maxim

Здравствуйте Леонид!
Спасибо за новости и за Ваши ответы на самые необычные вопросы. В мире кометы открываются редко, но еще реже ученные общаются с широкой публикой на тему своего исследования или открытия.
Мне, как гуманитарию, сложно понимать термины и сам язык Ваших сообщений. Например, не понятно, что такое блеск 4m и когда комета будет между Землей и Солнцем, не ясно также на сколько комета будет ярче, чем ожидалось. «Комета может достичь нулевой звездной величины и даже стать еще ярче», — это значит, что она будет видна, как Солнце или как что…?! Уверен, что я не один такой гуманитарий, которому сложно понять астрономические термины, поэтому прошу Вас писать с учетом и таковой публики
И еще интересно. С учетом этих последних данных, когда комету можно будет наблюдать невооруженным глазом и в какой части земли, в какое время суток? Может быть стоит создать карту мира с указанием мест от куда комета будет видна. Ведь это интересно знать всем ))
И еще предлагаю Вам записать видео и разместить его на ю-тюб с описанием характеристик Вашей кометы и ответами на самые странные вопросы.
Спасибо!
Erikss

hi!
is there a chance that this comet could fragment when it comes near the sun?
tnx
Ivan

Is the comet able to affect the earth when it is aligned, with the sun and our planet, causing earthquakes?.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Kheider Kevin Heider

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_magnitude

The star Vega is ~0m
The well known Andromeda Galaxy (M31) is 3.4m

Only SOHO might see the comet around 0m. In the night sky the comet is expected to be dimmer than the Andromeda Galaxy.
Alvega

It’s amazing how disconcerting a story can be. For one the glass is almost empty, for other the glass is half full.
«This comet may not put on a great show. Just as certainly» from here: http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-05-comet-elenin-preview.html
http://www.paranormalne.pl Dzekson

What do you think about the most recent calculations earth MOID in JPL?
Earth MOID = .0306528AU

trajectory was not quite as subject to drastic changes..

Leonid Elenin

What do you think about the most recent calculations earth MOID in JPL?
Earth MOID = .0306528AU

trajectory was not quite as subject to drastic changes..

MOID is not a minimal distance between two objects (close approach distance).
This is minimal distance between two orbits, but objects may situated on different points of orbit. My comet will pass near Earth orbit (at 0.03 AU) on Oct. 19, but Earth will be at 0.236 AU from the comet.
Carabelea Andrei

Hello Leonid,

I am not an astronomer(i am a computer specialist) , but I do want to know the answer to 4 simple questions:

1. Why comet Elenin has been observed so intense(on jpl small body database i can see an average about 10 observation per day in the last 6 months). What is so interesting at this commet ?

2. Why the last used data for calculating the orbit is from 02.08.2011 . It seems that the last observations suddenly stopped, or are not reported anymore.

3. How one can explain the corellation between alignament and eartquakes. I don’t want a technical explanation just a conclusion. As this made be very curious, I myself wrote the date of alignments based on jpl orbit simulation.

What I found is that 8 earthquakes did happen short after such an alignment, and 2 earthquakes did not happened after such an alignment. What I found is that an alignment must involve the comet itself and (the sun or the earh) or simply put:
elenin ^ ( earth V sun). Other type of alignment does not produce any corellation.

I choose 10 strong eartquakes at random beginning from 2010.

4. This is the first time when a comet moves almost coplanar (1.83 degrees) with planet orbits . Otherwise an alignment would not have been possible. Is this unusual ?

I would appreciate a feedback to any of the above questions. Thank you.

Andrei from Romania.

Аноним

Hi Andrei,

1. Amateur comets my cause more interest than «professional». This comet have interesting orbit. It can be brightest comet of the year.

2. Orbits of comets not recalculated every day. New orbits update will be soon.

3. My opinion about this question you can find on the site. Shortly — no correlations and «alignments».

4. This is one of most interesting feature of orbit. But not a unique. Comet C/2007 N3 (Lulin) has very low inclination orbit, but retrograde motion.

Andrei Carabelea

Thank you for your input.
I will keep reading about these alignments in my spare time as I am still not convinced. I am considering to calculate the probability of an eartquake given an alignment using a bayesian aproach.

Аноним

Hi Andrei,

1. Amateur comets my cause more interest than «professional». This comet have interesting orbit. It can be brightest comet of the year.

2. Orbits of comets not recalculated every day. New orbits update will be soon.

3. My opinion about this question you can find on the site. Shortly — no correlations and «alignments».

4. This is one of most interesting feature of orbit. But not a unique. Comet C/2007 N3 (Lulin) has very low inclination orbit, but retrograde motion.

Carabelea Andrei

Hello Leonid,

I am not an astronomer(i am a computer specialist) , but I do want to know the answer to 4 simple questions:

1. Why comet Elenin has been observed so intense(on jpl small body database i can see an average about 10 observation per day in the last 6 months). What is so interesting at this commet ?

2. Why the last used data for calculating the orbit is from 02.08.2011 . It seems that the last observations suddenly stopped, or are not reported anymore.

3. How one can explain the corellation between alignament and eartquakes. I don’t want a technical explanation just a conclusion. As this made be very curious, I myself wrote the date of alignments based on jpl orbit simulation.

What I found is that 8 earthquakes did happen short after such an alignment, and 2 earthquakes did not happened after such an alignment. What I found is that an alignment must involve the comet itself and (the sun or the earh) or simply put:
elenin ^ ( earth V sun). Other type of alignment does not produce any corellation.

I choose 10 strong eartquakes at random beginning from 2010.

4. This is the first time when a comet moves almost coplanar (1.83 degrees) with planet orbits . Otherwise an alignment would not have been possible. Is this unusual ?

I would appreciate a feedback to any of the above questions. Thank you.

Andrei from Romania.

Joe

Elenin,

You cannot deny that is clearly says 9/10/2011 as the Tp (time of perihelion passage). Here — http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=elenin;orb=1;cov=0;log=0;cad=0#orb

So what it’s one day off… That’s still 9/11 as far as I’m concerned. What the hell is this thing.

Аноним

TP is 2011-09-10 17:16:10

Where you find 9/11?? Of course 9/10 is not such interested for many people

MOHAMMED NASEERUDDIN

hi leonid
my name is mohammed naseeruddin
where can i see this comet elenin direction from moon night naked eye
where can i see this comet elenin direction from sun day naked eye
i see bright 3 stars near the moon in triangle shape what are they
i stay in south india AP Hyderabad
people call this comet with different names (nibiru, planet x, hercolubus, brown dwarf, red dwarf etc.,)is this true
K10spot

In laymans terms, how big and bright will the comet be? As big as the moon or more like a star?
Huskymike1050

Hello Leonid, I think its great that you have this blog and your answering questions. My question to you is, are you predicting the kind of doom i’m seeing on u-tube? Or do you see this as a no incident flyby or maybe a minimal incident? thank you huskymike1050
viorel

sunt din romania si as vrea sa stiu la noi in ce perioada a zilei se poate observa cometa cu ochiul liber ora? multumesc
Аноним

Thank you Michael. My comet is one of most observed comets. You can find many photos in Internet. For example very good photos by Gustavo Muler

http://gustavomuler.fotografiaastronomica.com/www/images/cometas/C1010X1/
Аноним

No any chance. Comet Elenin will be in Virgo, but Vesta in Capricornus.
Nepclouds

who are you here answering all the questions??? Are you Leonid Elenin???

Аноним

Yes, it’s me.

easy

when exactly is C/2010 X1 due to peak at mag.0? and where would be the ideal location to view it at its peak?
please excuse the silly questions, but i’m finding it difficult to get correct information regarding this comet… there is a lot of obfustication due to the doom ‘n gloomers.

so any help would be much appreciated.
thanks

Аноним

We can’t see this «peak» from the Earth. Only on images from SOHO spacecraft.

easy

it just dawned on me that you stated it will be between the sun and earth… doh. i should read more carefully.

many thanks and apologies for the question!

Аноним

You’re welcome

Аноним

Now comet visible from South hemisphere, comet can’t cast shadow on Earth.
Dale Ward

Yet its coma has been reported as measuring 200km across. Any thoughts on effects (direction, speed) of solar wind? An former amateur astronomer from Russia using a telescope by remote in New Mexico is a great story (I’m a reporter). And as an American….how about you set up a pay-per-view site, upload all the latest data and have an interactive application that lets you enter your location on earth along with optimal viewing times and even weather condition? I’d pay for that….or I’d get my editor to pay for it! Thanks for all your hard work and congratulations!
As an afterthought, I like all the doom-and-gloomers. They add variety and are exposing themselves to real science!
Dale Ward

Yet its coma has been reported as measuring 200km across. Any thoughts on effects (direction, speed) of solar wind? An former amateur astronomer from Russia using a telescope by remote in New Mexico is a great story (I’m a reporter). And as an American….how about you set up a pay-per-view site, upload all the latest data and have an interactive application that lets you enter your location on earth along with optimal viewing times and even weather condition? I’d pay for that….or I’d get my editor to pay for it! Thanks for all your hard work and congratulations!
As an afterthought, I like all the doom-and-gloomers. They add variety and are exposing themselves to real science!
Аноним

True.
Аноним

No, this is a rubbish. Comets can’t cause any disasters.

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